National Transport Model

Chris Peck's picture

MPs challenge flawed national transport modelling

7 May 2014
MPs have acknowledged evidence from CTC of the failures of the National Transport Model in a report by the Transport Select Committee on the strategic road network.
Massive extra road building will occur if current models aren't ditched

Following oral evidence given by CTC to the Transport Select Committee in December 2013, MPs have called on the Department for Transport to open the National Transport Model for wider scrutiny.

CTC welcomes the intervention from MPs, although the Committee could have gone further in outlining some of the problems with the model.

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Chris Peck's picture

Why models matter: CTC meets with the DfT's modelling team

Yesterday (22nd January), CTC met with officials from the Department for Transport to discuss how the National Transport Model deals with cycling. Chris Peck explains why the model matters, and what CTC wants to see changed.
What would Britain look like if we reached Dutch levels of cycling?

In November last year, CTC revealed that the Department's transport model forecast cycling levels would fall between 2015 and 2035.

At the time we questioned both why this was forecast, whether the forecast was accurate, and asked DfT officials for a meeting in order to discuss our concerns.

Roger Geffen's picture

Government planning to fail on cycling

Despite huge public and cross-party parliamentary support for substantially increased cycle use between now and 2050, the Government is expecting cycle use to FALL between 2015 and 2025, with little change between then and 2040.
Transport Model forecast for cycling 2010-2040

New figures, obtained by CTC through a parliamentary question, suggest that the Government's 'National Transport Model' is predicting an initial increase in cycle use, due to the economic downturn (from 2.9 bn miles in 2010 to 3.4 bn miles in 2015).

Chris Peck's picture

Government predicts cycling will FALL by 2040

While the Get Britain Cycling report calls on Government to aim for 10% of trips by 2025 and 25% of trips by 2050, in the bowels of the Department for Transport, technicians working on the National Transport Model are forecasting that cycling will fall for decades to come.
Cyclists crossing a road

Traffic modelling - the act of forecasting how much additional traffic there will be in future - is a dark art.

Forecasting is tricky: feedback loops and unknown future changes can rapidly upset any firm conclusions about current trajectories.

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